Post-lockdown abatement of COVID-19 by fast periodic switching.
Identifieur interne : 000231 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000230; suivant : 000232Post-lockdown abatement of COVID-19 by fast periodic switching.
Auteurs : Michelangelo Bin [Royaume-Uni] ; Peter Y K. Cheung [Royaume-Uni] ; Emanuele Crisostomi [Italie] ; Pietro Ferraro [Royaume-Uni] ; Hugo Lhachemi [France] ; Roderick Murray-Smith [Royaume-Uni] ; Connor Myant [Royaume-Uni] ; Thomas Parisini [Royaume-Uni, Italie, Chypre (pays)] ; Robert Shorten [Royaume-Uni, Irlande (pays)] ; Sebastian Stein [Royaume-Uni] ; Lewi Stone [Australie, Israël]Source :
- PLoS computational biology [ 1553-7358 ] ; 2021.
Abstract
COVID-19 abatement strategies have risks and uncertainties which could lead to repeating waves of infection. We show-as proof of concept grounded on rigorous mathematical evidence-that periodic, high-frequency alternation of into, and out-of, lockdown effectively mitigates second-wave effects, while allowing continued, albeit reduced, economic activity. Periodicity confers (i) predictability, which is essential for economic sustainability, and (ii) robustness, since lockdown periods are not activated by uncertain measurements over short time scales. In turn-while not eliminating the virus-this fast switching policy is sustainable over time, and it mitigates the infection until a vaccine or treatment becomes available, while alleviating the social costs associated with long lockdowns. Typically, the policy might be in the form of 1-day of work followed by 6-days of lockdown every week (or perhaps 2 days working, 5 days off) and it can be modified at a slow-rate based on measurements filtered over longer time scales. Our results highlight the potential efficacy of high frequency switching interventions in post lockdown mitigation. All code is available on Github at https://github.com/V4p1d/FPSP_Covid19. A software tool has also been developed so that interested parties can explore the proof-of-concept system.
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008604
PubMed: 33476332
Affiliations:
- Australie, Chypre (pays), France, Irlande (pays), Israël, Italie, Royaume-Uni
- Angleterre, Grand Londres, Leinster, Toscane, Victoria (État), Écosse, Île-de-France
- Dublin, Gif-sur-Yvette, Londres, Melbourne, Pise
- University College Dublin, Université de Pise
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Cheung</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Dyson School of Design Engineering, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Dyson School of Design Engineering, Imperial College London, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Crisostomi, Emanuele" sort="Crisostomi, Emanuele" uniqKey="Crisostomi E" first="Emanuele" last="Crisostomi">Emanuele Crisostomi</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Energy, Systems, Territory and Constructions Engineering, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Energy, Systems, Territory and Constructions Engineering, University of Pisa, 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CentraleSupélec, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>L2S, CentraleSupélec, Gif-sur-Yvette</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Gif-sur-Yvette</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Murray Smith, Roderick" sort="Murray Smith, Roderick" uniqKey="Murray Smith R" first="Roderick" last="Murray-Smith">Roderick Murray-Smith</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>School of Computing Science, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland.</nlm:affiliation><country>Royaume-Uni</country><placeName><region type="country">Écosse</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>School of Computing Science, University of Glasgow, Glasgow</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Myant, Connor" sort="Myant, Connor" uniqKey="Myant C" first="Connor" last="Myant">Connor Myant</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Dyson School of Design Engineering, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Dyson School of Design Engineering, Imperial College London, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Parisini, Thomas" sort="Parisini, Thomas" uniqKey="Parisini T" first="Thomas" last="Parisini">Thomas Parisini</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Imperial College London, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Engineering and Architecture, University of Trieste, Trieste, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Engineering and Architecture, University of Trieste, Trieste</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Trieste</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>KIOS Research and Innovation Center of Excellence, University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Chypre (pays)</country><wicri:regionArea>KIOS Research and Innovation Center of Excellence, University of Cyprus, Nicosia</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Nicosia</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Shorten, Robert" sort="Shorten, Robert" uniqKey="Shorten R" first="Robert" last="Shorten">Robert Shorten</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Dyson School of Design Engineering, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Dyson School of Design Engineering, Imperial College London, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Irlande (pays)</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University College Dublin, Dublin</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">University College Dublin</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Dublin</settlement><region type="région" nuts="2">Leinster</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Stein, Sebastian" sort="Stein, Sebastian" uniqKey="Stein S" first="Sebastian" last="Stein">Sebastian Stein</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>School of Computing Science, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland.</nlm:affiliation><country>Royaume-Uni</country><placeName><region type="country">Écosse</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>School of Computing Science, University of Glasgow, Glasgow</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Stone, Lewi" sort="Stone, Lewi" uniqKey="Stone L" first="Lewi" last="Stone">Lewi Stone</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Mathematics, School of Science, RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>Mathematics, School of Science, RMIT University, Melbourne</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Melbourne</settlement><region type="état">Victoria (État)</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Tel Aviv</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PLoS computational biology</title><idno type="eISSN">1553-7358</idno><imprint><date when="2021" type="published">2021</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">COVID-19 abatement strategies have risks and uncertainties which could lead to repeating waves of infection. We show-as proof of concept grounded on rigorous mathematical evidence-that periodic, high-frequency alternation of into, and out-of, lockdown effectively mitigates second-wave effects, while allowing continued, albeit reduced, economic activity. Periodicity confers (i) predictability, which is essential for economic sustainability, and (ii) robustness, since lockdown periods are not activated by uncertain measurements over short time scales. In turn-while not eliminating the virus-this fast switching policy is sustainable over time, and it mitigates the infection until a vaccine or treatment becomes available, while alleviating the social costs associated with long lockdowns. Typically, the policy might be in the form of 1-day of work followed by 6-days of lockdown every week (or perhaps 2 days working, 5 days off) and it can be modified at a slow-rate based on measurements filtered over longer time scales. Our results highlight the potential efficacy of high frequency switching interventions in post lockdown mitigation. All code is available on Github at https://github.com/V4p1d/FPSP_Covid19. A software tool has also been developed so that interested parties can explore the proof-of-concept system.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="Publisher" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">33476332</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2021</Year><Month>01</Month><Day>21</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1553-7358</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>17</Volume><Issue>1</Issue><PubDate><Year>2021</Year><Month>Jan</Month><Day>21</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>PLoS computational biology</Title><ISOAbbreviation>PLoS Comput Biol</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Post-lockdown abatement of COVID-19 by fast periodic switching.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>e1008604</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008604</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>COVID-19 abatement strategies have risks and uncertainties which could lead to repeating waves of infection. We show-as proof of concept grounded on rigorous mathematical evidence-that periodic, high-frequency alternation of into, and out-of, lockdown effectively mitigates second-wave effects, while allowing continued, albeit reduced, economic activity. Periodicity confers (i) predictability, which is essential for economic sustainability, and (ii) robustness, since lockdown periods are not activated by uncertain measurements over short time scales. In turn-while not eliminating the virus-this fast switching policy is sustainable over time, and it mitigates the infection until a vaccine or treatment becomes available, while alleviating the social costs associated with long lockdowns. Typically, the policy might be in the form of 1-day of work followed by 6-days of lockdown every week (or perhaps 2 days working, 5 days off) and it can be modified at a slow-rate based on measurements filtered over longer time scales. Our results highlight the potential efficacy of high frequency switching interventions in post lockdown mitigation. All code is available on Github at https://github.com/V4p1d/FPSP_Covid19. A software tool has also been developed so that interested parties can explore the proof-of-concept system.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Bin</LastName><ForeName>Michelangelo</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2645-1064</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Cheung</LastName><ForeName>Peter Y K</ForeName><Initials>PYK</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8236-1816</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Dyson School of Design Engineering, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Crisostomi</LastName><ForeName>Emanuele</ForeName><Initials>E</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7973-6357</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Energy, Systems, Territory and Constructions Engineering, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ferraro</LastName><ForeName>Pietro</ForeName><Initials>P</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9195-3880</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Dyson School of Design Engineering, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lhachemi</LastName><ForeName>Hugo</ForeName><Initials>H</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2782-4208</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>L2S, CentraleSupélec, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Murray-Smith</LastName><ForeName>Roderick</ForeName><Initials>R</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4228-7962</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Computing Science, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Myant</LastName><ForeName>Connor</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4705-4009</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Dyson School of Design Engineering, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Parisini</LastName><ForeName>Thomas</ForeName><Initials>T</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5396-9665</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Engineering and Architecture, University of Trieste, Trieste, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>KIOS Research and Innovation Center of Excellence, University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Shorten</LastName><ForeName>Robert</ForeName><Initials>R</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9239-2499</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Dyson School of Design Engineering, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Stein</LastName><ForeName>Sebastian</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1828-4008</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Computing Science, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Stone</LastName><ForeName>Lewi</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6465-579X</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Mathematics, School of Science, RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2021</Year><Month>01</Month><Day>21</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>PLoS Comput Biol</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101238922</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1553-734X</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><CoiStatement>The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.</CoiStatement></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>27</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>03</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2021</Year><Month>1</Month><Day>21</Day><Hour>17</Hour><Minute>12</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2021</Year><Month>1</Month><Day>22</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2021</Year><Month>1</Month><Day>22</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>aheadofprint</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">33476332</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008604</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">PCOMPBIOL-D-20-01341</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Australie</li><li>Chypre (pays)</li><li>France</li><li>Irlande (pays)</li><li>Israël</li><li>Italie</li><li>Royaume-Uni</li></country><region><li>Angleterre</li><li>Grand Londres</li><li>Leinster</li><li>Toscane</li><li>Victoria (État)</li><li>Écosse</li><li>Île-de-France</li></region><settlement><li>Dublin</li><li>Gif-sur-Yvette</li><li>Londres</li><li>Melbourne</li><li>Pise</li></settlement><orgName><li>University College Dublin</li><li>Université de Pise</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="Royaume-Uni"><region name="Angleterre"><name sortKey="Bin, Michelangelo" sort="Bin, Michelangelo" uniqKey="Bin M" first="Michelangelo" last="Bin">Michelangelo Bin</name></region><name sortKey="Cheung, Peter Y K" sort="Cheung, Peter Y K" uniqKey="Cheung P" first="Peter Y K" last="Cheung">Peter Y K. Cheung</name><name sortKey="Ferraro, Pietro" sort="Ferraro, Pietro" uniqKey="Ferraro P" first="Pietro" last="Ferraro">Pietro Ferraro</name><name sortKey="Murray Smith, Roderick" sort="Murray Smith, Roderick" uniqKey="Murray Smith R" first="Roderick" last="Murray-Smith">Roderick Murray-Smith</name><name sortKey="Myant, Connor" sort="Myant, Connor" uniqKey="Myant C" first="Connor" last="Myant">Connor Myant</name><name sortKey="Parisini, Thomas" sort="Parisini, Thomas" uniqKey="Parisini T" first="Thomas" last="Parisini">Thomas Parisini</name><name sortKey="Shorten, Robert" sort="Shorten, Robert" uniqKey="Shorten R" first="Robert" last="Shorten">Robert Shorten</name><name sortKey="Stein, Sebastian" sort="Stein, Sebastian" uniqKey="Stein S" first="Sebastian" last="Stein">Sebastian Stein</name></country><country name="Italie"><region name="Toscane"><name sortKey="Crisostomi, Emanuele" sort="Crisostomi, Emanuele" uniqKey="Crisostomi E" first="Emanuele" last="Crisostomi">Emanuele Crisostomi</name></region><name sortKey="Parisini, Thomas" sort="Parisini, Thomas" uniqKey="Parisini T" first="Thomas" last="Parisini">Thomas Parisini</name></country><country name="France"><region name="Île-de-France"><name sortKey="Lhachemi, Hugo" sort="Lhachemi, Hugo" uniqKey="Lhachemi H" first="Hugo" last="Lhachemi">Hugo Lhachemi</name></region></country><country name="Chypre (pays)"><noRegion><name sortKey="Parisini, Thomas" sort="Parisini, Thomas" uniqKey="Parisini T" first="Thomas" last="Parisini">Thomas Parisini</name></noRegion></country><country name="Irlande (pays)"><region name="Leinster"><name sortKey="Shorten, Robert" sort="Shorten, Robert" uniqKey="Shorten R" first="Robert" last="Shorten">Robert Shorten</name></region></country><country name="Australie"><region name="Victoria (État)"><name sortKey="Stone, Lewi" sort="Stone, Lewi" uniqKey="Stone L" first="Lewi" last="Stone">Lewi Stone</name></region></country><country name="Israël"><noRegion><name sortKey="Stone, Lewi" sort="Stone, Lewi" uniqKey="Stone L" first="Lewi" last="Stone">Lewi Stone</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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